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Election 2016 - After the First Debate - An Analysis - Advantage Trump

It's interesting and telling that no major network, published an online poll because they were either overwhelmingly Trump, or they thought they would be. Right now most of the major online polls are a win for Trump. True they are not "scientific", but they were limited respondents to only one vote, and as far as polls go you only the answer people give you at the time they are called, polled, so, about the same. So far much of the professional polling has the race as a dead heat.

Focus groups were more pronounced, as every-time Hillary went on about her accomplishments, they went down. I don't know if it's a memory lapse or something else, but the fact is she has no measurable accomplishments in Government, as First Lady, Senator (NY) and then as Secretary of State, as proven by track records well established by now. Unless you consider the debacle in Syria as a "success".
Trump's lack of government experience argument went out the window when Barack Obama was elected, who also had the same limitations of experience (community service notwithstanding).

Showing that the experience quotient matters but not as much to voters as someone who promises change in the status quo. People are sick of same old same politics which goes no where yet creates worse chaos in it's wake.
The secret of Trump's popularity, is a measure of America's fatigue toward the political elite and their constant scandals, misfires in foreign policy and other issues. To hear Clinton talk about her policy successes is like me describing the way I scramble an omelet. To me it looks good, but what I mess I make, and worse, I hope someone else cleans it up.

Reported Clinton camp pressure on NBC's producer to go after Trump as Holt's performance turned out to be accurate and again, it turns out NBC just can't get a moderator who can just moderate. They're job isn't to fact check, or become the 3rd debater for either candidate, thus Holt's performance is being criticized by even the most moderate of political observers.

The "Crowley Effect" needs to be addressed by the debate commission. Between the two candidates speaking to their perspective choirs they lost nobody, but IND and UND but a 4% switch from UND to "Likely Trump". Fact is that Clinton represents the establishment which most voters have had enough of and anyone who is anti-establishment is likely have a better chance this year than in previous years.

As far as October Surprises, Trump has weathered most controversy and grown, while Clinton has lost in some cases a 8 point advantage after the convention. However, unlike Trump she can ill afford more bad news and leaker, Julian Assange promises there is much more being held back that hasn't been released yet. If it shows anything of value, or adds to mounting evidence to the email scandal, or perhaps more foundation issues, she's done.
There could be a surprise for Trump, but unless it's naked pictures (sorry) of him with a cat or worse, I don't think much else sticks. Sorry, but "He's a dirty business man" doesn't surprise most people, except to the fringe left wings who hate any kind of business or evidently sucess for that matter. So right now I don't see much that would make a dent.

Additionally like him or hate him, Donald Trump is a product of America's Reality TV loving, Idol worshiping love of the bombastic person, in your face, the kind of person that makes you say yeah!
Hillary on the other hand appears mad, agitated, frustrated, and for most she brings up memories of the 90s, but not in a good way, visa Whitewater, Paula Jones, "Bimbo Eruptions",Impeachment, all the way to her losing her cool during the Benghazi hearings, "What difference does it make?" Well it seems a lot, especially to the parents of those who were killed in what pretty much was left off the resume of foreign policy achievement.

Another issue is that of Bernie supporters, some of which just to "pay back"for what they perceive as the criminal way in which she stole the nomination away from their standard bearer, and perhaps just stay home and not vote, the results would be catastrophic as the Clinton camp includes them in their internal polling calculations. Trump has no significant 3rd party opposition, and it's likely more than half of Johnson's supports will throw the switch for Trump than just throw their vote away, rather than stay home.

Either way after the first debate there is likely going to be a further momentum for Trump, as Hillary did not sell herself well to IND and UND, and again, against all odds, screw ups and other negatives about Trump, he came into the to the debate with a 54.5% chance of winning the election. Pretty amazing.

I don't think last night really changed it, and if it did it's likely a bump for Trump.


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