Trump Approval Rating at 52% Despite "Poll Juice" by MSM

Trump approval, 52%. As opposed to NBC news using unscientific Survey Monkey polling. For reference, FiveThiryEight gives SurveyMonkey a rating of C-. While SurveyMonkey doesn’t release margins of error with their polling because of the methodology, FiveThirtyEight gives them an average error of 11.2 points. This was determined by analyzing eleven of their polls to final results. - In other words they're crap.

Rasmussen Poll.

Election 2016 - After the First Debate - An Analysis - Advantage Trump

It's interesting and telling that no major network, published an online poll because they were either overwhelmingly Trump, or they thought they would be. Right now most of the major online polls are a win for Trump. True they are not "scientific", but they were limited respondents to only one vote, and as far as polls go you only the answer people give you at the time they are called, polled, so, about the same. So far much of the professional polling has the race as a dead heat.

Focus groups were more pronounced, as every-time Hillary went on about her accomplishments, they went down. I don't know if it's a memory lapse or something else, but the fact is she has no measurable accomplishments in Government, as First Lady, Senator (NY) and then as Secretary of State, as proven by track records well established by now. Unless you consider the debacle in Syria as a "success".
Trump's lack of government experience argument went out the window when Barack Obama was elected, who also had the same limitations of experience (community service notwithstanding).

Showing that the experience quotient matters but not as much to voters as someone who promises change in the status quo. People are sick of same old same politics which goes no where yet creates worse chaos in it's wake.
The secret of Trump's popularity, is a measure of America's fatigue toward the political elite and their constant scandals, misfires in foreign policy and other issues. To hear Clinton talk about her policy successes is like me describing the way I scramble an omelet. To me it looks good, but what I mess I make, and worse, I hope someone else cleans it up.

Reported Clinton camp pressure on NBC's producer to go after Trump as Holt's performance turned out to be accurate and again, it turns out NBC just can't get a moderator who can just moderate. They're job isn't to fact check, or become the 3rd debater for either candidate, thus Holt's performance is being criticized by even the most moderate of political observers.

The "Crowley Effect" needs to be addressed by the debate commission. Between the two candidates speaking to their perspective choirs they lost nobody, but IND and UND but a 4% switch from UND to "Likely Trump". Fact is that Clinton represents the establishment which most voters have had enough of and anyone who is anti-establishment is likely have a better chance this year than in previous years.

As far as October Surprises, Trump has weathered most controversy and grown, while Clinton has lost in some cases a 8 point advantage after the convention. However, unlike Trump she can ill afford more bad news and leaker, Julian Assange promises there is much more being held back that hasn't been released yet. If it shows anything of value, or adds to mounting evidence to the email scandal, or perhaps more foundation issues, she's done.
There could be a surprise for Trump, but unless it's naked pictures (sorry) of him with a cat or worse, I don't think much else sticks. Sorry, but "He's a dirty business man" doesn't surprise most people, except to the fringe left wings who hate any kind of business or evidently sucess for that matter. So right now I don't see much that would make a dent.

Additionally like him or hate him, Donald Trump is a product of America's Reality TV loving, Idol worshiping love of the bombastic person, in your face, the kind of person that makes you say yeah!
Hillary on the other hand appears mad, agitated, frustrated, and for most she brings up memories of the 90s, but not in a good way, visa Whitewater, Paula Jones, "Bimbo Eruptions",Impeachment, all the way to her losing her cool during the Benghazi hearings, "What difference does it make?" Well it seems a lot, especially to the parents of those who were killed in what pretty much was left off the resume of foreign policy achievement.

Another issue is that of Bernie supporters, some of which just to "pay back"for what they perceive as the criminal way in which she stole the nomination away from their standard bearer, and perhaps just stay home and not vote, the results would be catastrophic as the Clinton camp includes them in their internal polling calculations. Trump has no significant 3rd party opposition, and it's likely more than half of Johnson's supports will throw the switch for Trump than just throw their vote away, rather than stay home.

Either way after the first debate there is likely going to be a further momentum for Trump, as Hillary did not sell herself well to IND and UND, and again, against all odds, screw ups and other negatives about Trump, he came into the to the debate with a 54.5% chance of winning the election. Pretty amazing.

I don't think last night really changed it, and if it did it's likely a bump for Trump.

Guess What? Obama IS Marion Barry without the Crack

It's a foregone conclusion that Barack Obama isn't the genius that even his most ardent admirers thought he was. ABC News reports that their recent poll now has him at 50%, matching other recent polling, which only shows that much of America is realizing it as well. The other night on 60 minutes Obama gave himself a "B+" which means that along with being unpopular he's delusional as well.

Correction the Quinnipiac Poll - NOT the First Time Obama Slipped Below 50% Approval

Errr,...

 "President Barack Obama's job approval rating is 48 - 42 percent, the first time he has slipped below the 50 percent threshold nationally, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. "

 Incorrect.

 Rasmussen Reports has had Obama's approval at below 50 percent on 7 different occasions during the last month or two.

Additionally  Fox News in it's October 18th poll found Obama at sub 50 percent as well.

Republicans Continue to Lead on Generic Ballot

Finally even the weighted Gallup Poll can't hid the truth.

"Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month."

This is old news as Rasmussen Reports has had Republicans up in varying degrees since July.   Gallup's methodology has evidently finally changed to match the actual electorate.

CNN's Poll's Should Be Suspended

It's past laughable.

"Washington (CNN) -- One year after he won a historical presidential election, a slight majority of Americans approve of the job Barack Obama's doing in the White House. Fifty-four percent of people questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday approve of how Obama is handling his duties as president, with 45 percent saying they disapprove."

 Again, CNN isn't posting the demographics of the poll, but we can bet that they are again heavily weighted Democrat.

 Why?

  Rasumssen Reports, the most accurate polling since 2004, has Obama at 46 percent. Other polls barely have him breaking 50.

 So what is up?

 I think until CNN can post it's methodology their polling shouldn't be taken with any seriousness at all.

While Obama Swoons in Polls - CNN goes after Palin

Anything to get the focus off the Glory Kid and his fading glory.

"WASHINGTON (CNN) - More than seven in 10 Americans think Sarah Palin is not qualified to be president, according to a new national poll. Seventy-one percent of those questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Wednesday morning believe the former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee is not qualified to be president, with 29 percent saying she does have the credentials to serve in the White House. Republicans appear split, with 52 percent saying she's qualified and 47 percent disagreeing with that view.

The poll indicates that about half of the country, 51 percent, has an unfavorable view of Palin, with 42 percent seeing her in a positive light. Nearly two-thirds of those questioned say Palin's not a typical politician, and feel she's a good role model for women. Fifty-six percent add that Palin cares about people, and a similar amount think she's honest and trustworthy. But the survey indicates Americans are split over whether Palin shares their values, agrees with them on the issues, or if she's a strong leader."

Of course this is another weighted Democrat CNN poll.  It's designed to do nothing except to show just who the media is worried about in 2012.

 If Palin was really all that unpopular why bother?  Fact is that early in 2008 polls showed the same feeling about Hillary Clinton.

Barack Obama was never really considered qualified for President by anyone with half a brain (liberals excused from that requirement), and according to his plunging poll numbers that's evident.

Slip-Sliding Away - More Shrinking Numbers for Kid Obama

Poof!

 "In Gallup Daily tracking that spans Barack Obama's third quarter in office (July 20 through Oct. 19), the president averaged a 53% job approval rating. That is down sharply from his prior quarterly averages, which were both above 60%.

 In fact, the 9-point drop in the most recent quarter is the largest Gallup has ever measured for an elected president between the second and third quarters of his term, dating back to 1953. One president who was not elected to his first term -- Harry Truman -- had a 13-point drop between his second and third quarters in office in 1945 and 1946."

I don't find this "shocking at all"  I've said it all along.  The "buyer's remorse" of voting for a Paper Tiger.  Obama's turning out to be all talk, howbeit through a teleprompter, hugely petty - almost Nixonist in his paranoia, and quite frankly something Americans could do without right now.  

Look for this slide to continue.   Bush hit 40-30s in his second term, Obama will hit them before the middle of his second year.    Fact is that if we had a way of recall for the Presidency Obama would be hitting the want ads.

Where's the Media on Obama's Unpopularity

Remember when Bush went below 50 percent approval in the polls how the media kept reminding us how unpopular he was? Where were are they now? Rasmussen - most accurate of the polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008 has Obama at 46% approval and 53% disapproval. UPDATE: Today at %45. David Brooks - who supported THE ONE.

"The administration hasn’t been able to pull it off. From the stimulus to health care, it has joined itself at the hip to the liberal leadership in Congress. The White House has failed to veto measures, like the pork-laden omnibus spending bill, that would have demonstrated independence and fiscal restraint. By force of circumstances and by design, the president has promoted one policy after another that increases spending and centralizes power in Washington. The result is the Obama slide, the most important feature of the current moment. The number of Americans who trust President Obama to make the right decisions has fallen by roughly 17 percentage points. Obama’s job approval is down to about 50 percent. All presidents fall from their honeymoon highs, but in the history of polling, no newly elected American president has fallen this far this fast. Anxiety is now pervasive. Trust in government rose when Obama took office. It has fallen back to historic lows. Fifty-nine percent of Americans now think the country is headed in the wrong direction."

We said it all along, there's a kid driving the bus, and he's headed for a cliff. Question is how many more jump off before it goes over?

AP: Polls Tighen - Obama leads by ....1?

Keep hope Alive!

"WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis."

Again, as I've been telling you on the show the current polling is bogus and off the chart because they sample more than 50% more Democrats than Republicans. Something that's noted in this story.

"Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science professor and polling authority, said variation between polls occurs, in part, because pollsters interview random samples of people.

"If they all agree, somebody would be doing something terribly wrong," he said of polls. But he also said that surveys generally fall within a few points of each other, adding, "When you get much beyond that, there's something to explain."

Yeah, hold your breath for C-BS to explain that 14 point gap in their poll last week.

Big Bump for Barry After World Tour

Well you would expect something after spending a few million.

"PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama now leads John McCain among national registered voters by a 49% to 40% margin in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 24-26.

This represents a continuation of Obama's front-runner position evident in the last three Gallup Poll Daily tracking updates. The margin, coincident with the extensive U.S. news coverage of Obama's foreign tour, is the largest for Obama over McCain measured since Gallup began tracking the general election horserace in March. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

A key question remains as to whether this "bounce" is short-term (as happens to bounces in some instances following intense publicity surrounding a convention) or if his lead will persist -- the answer to which will become evident in the next several days."

Of course we have to balance this with other polls - such as Fox, which showed next to nothing in a bounce. While Gallup is normally accurate, they are not posting the sample break down and this sounds that it was weighted Democrat. Nevertheless, and giving WIDE benefit of the doubt, while 9 points is hefty, you have to shave off the margin of error and it's not that big of a deal. Actually I'll bet the Obama camp is a little worried that he shot his wad - so to speak - before Labor Day.

In fact, now that I think about it, for all the Obamamania, the hoop and holler and over the top media coverage and adulation 9 points isn't really much at all.