Sunday, July 27, 2008


Big Bump for Barry After World Tour

Well you would expect something after spending a few million.

"PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama now leads John McCain among national registered voters by a 49% to 40% margin in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 24-26.

This represents a continuation of Obama's front-runner position evident in the last three Gallup Poll Daily tracking updates. The margin, coincident with the extensive U.S. news coverage of Obama's foreign tour, is the largest for Obama over McCain measured since Gallup began tracking the general election horserace in March. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

A key question remains as to whether this "bounce" is short-term (as happens to bounces in some instances following intense publicity surrounding a convention) or if his lead will persist -- the answer to which will become evident in the next several days."

Of course we have to balance this with other polls - such as Fox, which showed next to nothing in a bounce. While Gallup is normally accurate, they are not posting the sample break down and this sounds that it was weighted Democrat. Nevertheless, and giving WIDE benefit of the doubt, while 9 points is hefty, you have to shave off the margin of error and it's not that big of a deal. Actually I'll bet the Obama camp is a little worried that he shot his wad - so to speak - before Labor Day.

In fact, now that I think about it, for all the Obamamania, the hoop and holler and over the top media coverage and adulation 9 points isn't really much at all.

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Mac, I sure will be glad when you get your site problems fixed. I was beginning to have withdrawals.

That said; there is such a thing as a political peak. And we haven't even gotten past the conventions. I expect that the Howard Dean run DNC will continue to anger HillSupporters and will make it worse in Denver.

This could really hurt Obama. If HillSupporters become even more disenchanted, they will come out strong against him.

RCP (which still has Congressional approval at 17%) has Obama leading by 4.8% last time I checked. That is not a major lead when Obama should be 15% ahead by now.

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Hey Retire05,

You have no idea how glad I am to be able to be blogging somewhere! What a nightmare, but we should be up again on the old site by wednesday while routing traffic here until the attacks stop.

In any case you are absolutely right, and it's exactly that I've been saying. By all accounts Obama should be blowing McCain out of the water - he's not and that is at this point good news.

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