The reason is that with the current Supreme Court lineup - which is 6-3 favoring the "core" right of a woman to have an abortion, there would have to be at least two more vacancies, to "set the table" for such a ruling to take place.
I suspect that Justice Rehnquist IS going to retire soon, possibly in the next few weeks. Justice Stevens, who is 85 would propably be next, but there is no indication that he is going to retire anytime soon.
So the real question is whether or not all of this would take place during Bush's administraton and whether after 2006, Republican's retain control of the House and Senate. 2006 seems secure for now, but 2008 looms. The left is gearing up the Hillary for President engine, the right hasn't really got a front runner yet.
Overturning Roe Vs. Wade, if it is to take place will not happen overnight or even within the next few years. Again, replacing O'Connor with the right pick is the first stop on long journey.
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